Our views

The mission of Gavekal's macro research is to help clients make strategic investment decisions by offering smart judgments on how markets interact with economic and political trends. Browse the sample reports and videos below to get a taste of our views.

Sample reports

Truth In Financial Conditions

Gavekal Research

Truth In Financial Conditions

Will Denyer
15 Mar 2023
Milton Friedman once compared hapless central bankers who fail to appreciate the lag between monetary policy and inflation to a “fool in the shower.” At first the water is too cold, so the shivering fool turns up the hot tap until he is enveloped in a scalding jet of steam. He frantically cranks up the cold, only to end up doused in a numbing stream of ice water.
The Devil In The Detail Of Eurozone Inflation

Gavekal Research

The Devil In The Detail Of Eurozone Inflation

Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews
27 Jan 2023
Europe has dodged an economic bullet. Worst-case fears of a crippling energy shortage have vanished and investors have revised down the growth and inflation risks they were pricing into European markets. But while this is unambiguously positive for European growth, the implications for eurozone inflation are less straightforward.

Gavekal Research

What If I’m Wrong? It Would Be NICE

Anatole Kaletsky
12 Jan 2023
If Thursday's inflation report turns out to be in line with market expectations they will clearly reinforce the Goldilocks narrative that I ridiculed earlier this week. So what if I am wrong? What if the market is right to believe in Goldilocks?

Gavekal Dragonomics

Property’s Dark Night Before Dawn

Rosealea Yao
20 Dec 2022
China’s reopening from Covid containment is hammering the property market. While sales are likely to remain weak through at least December and January, Rosealea argues that after the initial wave of infections passes, the reopening should give homebuyers more confidence and provide a meaningful boost to sales and construction next year.

Gavekal Research

The Charts That Matter

Louis-Vincent Gave
10 Dec 2022
As 2022 enters its last weeks, a range of indicators point to an unfolding slowdown across the developed world. If this were a normal cycle, the recession call would make itself. But this is not a normal cycle, argues Louis, since China is set to emerge from three years of crushing lockdowns.

Gavekal Research

The Big Bad US Bond Bear Market

Charles Gave
19 May 2022
Since the peak of the bond bull market on March 9, 2020, a constant duration 30-year US treasury has delivered a total return of -50%. Charles asks whether developed world bond markets are now worth buying. The answer is a resounding no.

Videos

Video: Is This Really A Banking Crisis?

Video: Is This Really A Banking Crisis?

31 Mar 2023
Three weeks into the “banking crisis”, Louis takes stock of the reaction from asset markets and considers how investors should be positioning themselves.
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Video: The State Of China's Recovery

Video: The State Of China's Recovery

17 Mar 2023
China’s hotly anticipated economic indicators for January and February, released this week, revealed for the first time the state of the economic recovery after the reopening from Covid containment. Christopher unpacks what the data show and the likely trajectory for growth this year.
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Video: Unpacking The Yield Curve Inversion

Video: Unpacking The Yield Curve Inversion

9 Mar 2023
The US yield curve has not been this severely inverted since 1981, giving rise to fears that a recession in the world’s biggest economy may be nigh. Yield curve inversions do not always signal a recession, but every recession since the mid-1960s has been preceded by an inverted yield curve. Will explains why that is the case and what it means for asset allocators.
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Video: Parsing The US Growth Data

Video: Parsing The US Growth Data

22 Feb 2023
US risk assets sold off heavily on Wednesday as investors processed strengthening US economic data that points to more inflation and a less easy Federal Reserve. Tan Kai Xian explains why, in spite of recent strong data releases, the US economy may not be out of the woods, and may flatter to deceive.
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