Our views

The mission of Gavekal's macro research is to help clients make strategic investment decisions by offering smart judgments on how markets interact with economic and political trends. Browse the sample reports and videos below to get a taste of our views.

Sample reports

When To Buy Bonds Again

Gavekal Research

When To Buy Bonds Again

Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
27 Apr 2022
So far this year, the best positioning for investors has been to avoid US bonds entirely or, failing that, to keep duration as short as practicable. But after a steep bond sell-off, Will & KX examine whether they now offer an attractive buying opportunity.
Lockdown Scenarios For China

Gavekal Dragonomics

Lockdown Scenarios For China

Andrew Batson, Ernan Cui
26 Apr 2022
Global equities and energy prices tanked on Monday morning as fears spread about the economic impact of China’s strict Covid policies, especially the possibility of a new lockdown in Beijing. In this piece, Andrew and Ernan explore three broad scenarios for the country's reopening.

Gavekal Research

The Demise Of The Anti-Fragile Asset Classes And Consequences

Louis-Vincent Gave
25 Jan 2022
During the Asian Crisis, as investors panicked the price of assets collapsed and keept falling as if no bottom would ever be found. Similar dynamics have been at work in US equity markets, and as a result equities now appear fairly oversold, even if the reasons for the sell-off have not gone away.

Gavekal Research

Investing Through Inflation

Charles Gave
13 Jan 2022
When assessing the impact of inflation on US markets, Charles has long believed that its actual level is irrelevant. Instead, it is necessary to determine whether price growth is accelerating or decelerating. He uses this insight to present a new framework for investing in inflationary times.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Behind The Incredible Export Boom

Thomas Gatley
13 Jan 2022
Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Charging The Future

Dan Wang
19 Nov 2021
The world needs more batteries, both to power electric vehicles and store electricity for green power grids. China is in a prime position to meet that demand as it already commands a large majority of both current and planned production capacity. It is therefore probable that Chinese firms will be commanding leading positions in a decade’s time.

Videos

London Seminar — March 2022

London Seminar — March 2022

4 Apr 2022
In our latest seminar in London, our team assessed the impact of the war in Ukraine on geopolitics, energy markets and global growth. A key question for investors is the impact on inflation and thus on monetary policy as the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance. Also covered was China's cautious efforts to stimulate its economy and whether it will ever retreat from a disruptive zero-Covid stance.
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Video: The Quirinale Question

Video: The Quirinale Question

14 Jan 2022
The possibility that Italian prime minister Mario Draghi could be installed as the country’s largely ceremonial president when parliament chooses a new head of state next month has raised fears of a new period of political instability. In this video interview, Nick Andrews assesses the implications for Draghi’s ongoing structural reform program, and for Italian asset prices.
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Video: The Case For US Bank Stocks

Video: The Case For US Bank Stocks

7 Jan 2022
As the Federal Reserve dials back its quantitative easing program, the US economy is back to relying on banks as the main agents of credit creation. And as US yields move higher, Will is convinced that large-cap bank stocks offer one of the best bets in the US market. In this video interview, he explains why.
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Video: The Struggle For Self-Sufficiency

Video: The Struggle For Self-Sufficiency

17 Dec 2021
US efforts to slow the development of China’s domestic semiconductor industry through export bans on US-origin technology has duly stymied its leading chipmakers. As a result, Beijing is working hard to achieve some form of technological self-sufficiency. In this interview, Gavekal Fathom China’s Tilly Zhang outlines two prongs of the effort.
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