The mission of Gavekal's macro research is to help clients make strategic investment decisions by offering smart judgments on how markets interact with economic and political trends. Browse the sample reports and videos below to get a taste of our views.
Since the peak of the bond bull market on March 9, 2020, a constant duration 30-year US treasury has delivered a total return of -50%. Charles asks whether developed world bond markets are now worth buying. The answer is a resounding no.
So far this year, the best positioning for investors has been to avoid US bonds entirely or, failing that, to keep duration as short as practicable. But after a steep bond sell-off, Will & KX examine whether they now offer an attractive buying opportunity.
Global equities and energy prices tanked on Monday morning as fears spread about the economic impact of China’s strict Covid policies, especially the possibility of a new lockdown in Beijing. In this piece, Andrew and Ernan explore three broad scenarios for the country's reopening.
During the Asian Crisis, as investors panicked the price of assets collapsed and keept falling as if no bottom would ever be found. Similar dynamics have been at work in US equity markets, and as a result equities now appear fairly oversold, even if the reasons for the sell-off have not gone away.
When assessing the impact of inflation on US markets, Charles has long believed that its actual level is irrelevant. Instead, it is necessary to determine whether price growth is accelerating or decelerating. He uses this insight to present a new framework for investing in inflationary times.
Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.