Our views

The mission of Gavekal's macro research is to help clients make strategic investment decisions by offering smart judgments on how markets interact with economic and political trends. Browse the sample reports and videos below to get a taste of our views.

Sample reports

The Big Bad US Bond Bear Market

Gavekal Research

The Big Bad US Bond Bear Market

Charles Gave
19 May 2022
Since the peak of the bond bull market on March 9, 2020, a constant duration 30-year US treasury has delivered a total return of -50%. Charles asks whether developed world bond markets are now worth buying. The answer is a resounding no.
When To Buy Bonds Again

Gavekal Research

When To Buy Bonds Again

Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
27 Apr 2022
So far this year, the best positioning for investors has been to avoid US bonds entirely or, failing that, to keep duration as short as practicable. But after a steep bond sell-off, Will & KX examine whether they now offer an attractive buying opportunity.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Lockdown Scenarios For China

Andrew Batson, Ernan Cui
26 Apr 2022
Global equities and energy prices tanked on Monday morning as fears spread about the economic impact of China’s strict Covid policies, especially the possibility of a new lockdown in Beijing. In this piece, Andrew and Ernan explore three broad scenarios for the country's reopening.

Gavekal Research

The Demise Of The Anti-Fragile Asset Classes And Consequences

Louis-Vincent Gave
25 Jan 2022
During the Asian Crisis, as investors panicked the price of assets collapsed and keept falling as if no bottom would ever be found. Similar dynamics have been at work in US equity markets, and as a result equities now appear fairly oversold, even if the reasons for the sell-off have not gone away.

Gavekal Research

Investing Through Inflation

Charles Gave
13 Jan 2022
When assessing the impact of inflation on US markets, Charles has long believed that its actual level is irrelevant. Instead, it is necessary to determine whether price growth is accelerating or decelerating. He uses this insight to present a new framework for investing in inflationary times.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Behind The Incredible Export Boom

Thomas Gatley
13 Jan 2022
Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.

Videos

Video: The New Italian Job

Video: The New Italian Job

30 Sep 2022
After last weekend’s election, Italy’s next prime minister is set to be an ultra-conservative Euroskeptic. But investors focused instead on the dramas emerging from the bond markets of Britain and the US. In this interview, Nick assesses the likely approach of the next Italian government and what this means for European risk.
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Video: What Ethereum's Merge Means

Video: What Ethereum's Merge Means

16 Sep 2022
On Thursday the Ethereum blockchain underwent the “merge”, moving from a proof-of-work based system to proof-of-stake. This cut its energy usage by -99.9% and slashed the issuance of new ether. Will explains what that means for ether’s in-universe money supply, and how it might make the cryptocurrency more attractive to investors, or spenders.
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Video: Why The Yen's Slide Matters

Video: Why The Yen's Slide Matters

8 Sep 2022
In the last six weeks the Japanese yen has fallen over -8% against the US currency to more than ¥140 to the US dollar. In this video interview, Louis examines the causes of the yen’s fall and explores the potential consequences for investors.
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Webinar: Investing In The Age Of Weaponization

Webinar: Investing In The Age Of Weaponization

2 Jul 2022
As crises have emerged, recent years have seen western policymakers weaponize everything from financial services provision to semiconductor production. This will have wide-ranging consequences for the relative performance of assets across the world.
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