Our views

The mission of Gavekal's macro research is to help clients make strategic investment decisions by offering smart judgments on how markets interact with economic and political trends. Browse the sample reports and videos below to get a taste of our views.

Sample reports

The Big Bad US Bond Bear Market

Gavekal Research

The Big Bad US Bond Bear Market

Charles Gave
19 May 2022
Since the peak of the bond bull market on March 9, 2020, a constant duration 30-year US treasury has delivered a total return of -50%. Charles asks whether developed world bond markets are now worth buying. The answer is a resounding no.
When To Buy Bonds Again

Gavekal Research

When To Buy Bonds Again

Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
27 Apr 2022
So far this year, the best positioning for investors has been to avoid US bonds entirely or, failing that, to keep duration as short as practicable. But after a steep bond sell-off, Will & KX examine whether they now offer an attractive buying opportunity.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Lockdown Scenarios For China

Andrew Batson, Ernan Cui
26 Apr 2022
Global equities and energy prices tanked on Monday morning as fears spread about the economic impact of China’s strict Covid policies, especially the possibility of a new lockdown in Beijing. In this piece, Andrew and Ernan explore three broad scenarios for the country's reopening.

Gavekal Research

The Demise Of The Anti-Fragile Asset Classes And Consequences

Louis-Vincent Gave
25 Jan 2022
During the Asian Crisis, as investors panicked the price of assets collapsed and keept falling as if no bottom would ever be found. Similar dynamics have been at work in US equity markets, and as a result equities now appear fairly oversold, even if the reasons for the sell-off have not gone away.

Gavekal Research

Investing Through Inflation

Charles Gave
13 Jan 2022
When assessing the impact of inflation on US markets, Charles has long believed that its actual level is irrelevant. Instead, it is necessary to determine whether price growth is accelerating or decelerating. He uses this insight to present a new framework for investing in inflationary times.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Behind The Incredible Export Boom

Thomas Gatley
13 Jan 2022
Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.

Videos

Video: Unpicking China's Covid Exit

Video: Unpicking China's Covid Exit

2 Dec 2022
China took the first steps towards a de facto reopening this week, as the country’s strict Covid containment regime broke down following protests last weekend. In this interview, Christopher looks at why the breakdown happened and how reopening is likely to unfold in the coming weeks and months, including its implications for the economy.
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Video: The Structural Decline In Europe’s Competitiveness

Video: The Structural Decline In Europe’s Competitiveness

24 Nov 2022
Over the last 12 months, the eurozone’s trade balance has swung from surplus into a deficit. And energy prices are only part of the reason. Nick explains that the eurozone is also suffering a structural decline in its manufacturing competitiveness that will to weigh on growth for years to come.
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Video: How To Play The US Housing Decline

Video: How To Play The US Housing Decline

18 Nov 2022
With affordability at a near 40-year low, demand for US housing has faded and homebuilders’ confidence has evaporated. In this video interview, Kai Xian explains how bad things could get and presents an investing strategy that could work even in very bad market conditions.
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Video: India's Changing Investment Cycle

Video: India's Changing Investment Cycle

10 Nov 2022
In a growth-challenged world, India stands out as something of a bright spot. The economy is hardly firing on all cylinders but there are signs of a new investment cycle starting to unfold. Tom recently did a research trip in the country for the first time since the pandemic and in this interview explains his findings.
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