Our views

The mission of Gavekal's macro research is to help clients make strategic investment decisions by offering smart judgments on how markets interact with economic and political trends. Browse the sample reports and videos below to get a taste of our views.

Sample reports

The Revenge Of The Ottoman Empire

Gavekal Research

The Revenge Of The Ottoman Empire

Louis-Vincent Gave
11 Dec 2023
When Constantinople fell to the Ottomans in 1453, Western European powers were locked out of trading routes in the Eastern Mediterranean. Trade was hamstrung unless another route could be found to link Europe with India and China. Cue the age of the great explorers. In this piece, Louis explains why a latter day parallel of this episode in history may be unfolding before us.
Has China Experienced A Juglar Cycle?

Gavekal Research

Has China Experienced A Juglar Cycle?

Charles Gave
22 Aug 2023
Today, Charles's idea is not to say something new about China’s economy but to argue that its current dislocation is inevitable for well-documented reasons. French economist Clément Juglar explored cycles as recurring phenomena based on periods of eight to 12 years, and his ideas may be relevant to China's current predicament.

Gavekal Dragonomics

How Small A Yard, How High A Fence?

Yanmei Xie
12 Jun 2023
A new Biden administration catchphrase calls for a “small yard, high fence”: export and investment controls on China will be limited to a small number of critical technologies, but they will be very hard. Yanmei argues that advanced computing technologies will be locked inside that yard, while most other technologies are likely to sit outside it.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Glimpsing The Future For Property In Hainan

Rosealea Yao
31 May 2023
The tropical island province of Hainan was the birthplace of China’s first property bubble, an investment frenzy that took off in the early 1990s. But if China’s policymakers have their way, Hainan may also turn out to be the graveyard of the nation’s now decades-old economic fixation on property.

Gavekal Research

Questions Raised By The AI Surge

Louis-Vincent Gave
30 May 2023
This month’s surge in artificial intelligence-related stocks has Louis wondering about the underlying signaling. On the one hand, he asks if mega-cap tech is merely sucking up the liquidity that until recently had been going into other markets. On the other hand, he wonders if this violent move signals a structural shift in the global liquidity environment.

Gavekal Research

Truth In Financial Conditions

Will Denyer
15 Mar 2023
Milton Friedman once compared hapless central bankers who fail to appreciate the lag between monetary policy and inflation to a “fool in the shower.” At first the water is too cold, so the shivering fool turns up the hot tap until he is enveloped in a scalding jet of steam. He frantically cranks up the cold, only to end up doused in a numbing stream of ice water.

Videos

Video: Breasting The Bond Rout

Video: Breasting The Bond Rout

28 Sep 2023
In the last two months, US treasury bonds have suffered another steep sell-off, with 10-year yields rising to their highest since 2007. In this video interview, Louis explores why the market is seeing another down-leg now, examines the implications and asks where, with major equity indexes under pressure, investors can seek safety amid the turbulence.
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Video: Towards A More Temperate Recovery

Video: Towards A More Temperate Recovery

24 May 2023
For China bulls, April really was the cruelest month, with economic indicators undershooting expectations almost across the board. In response, market sentiment has swung from the excessive bullishness that prevailed at the end of 2022 to what looks now like an excess of bearishness.
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Video: The Outlook For Oil Prices

Video: The Outlook For Oil Prices

21 Apr 2023
The Opec+ petroleum exporters’ cartel is cutting back its crude production and China's reopening evokes memories of how previous Chinese rebound drove oil demand. But is that the case today? Tom weighs the conflicting forces driving oil demand and supply, and assesses the outlook for prices over the remainder of 2023.
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Video: Macron's Gambit

Video: Macron's Gambit

13 Apr 2023
Emmanuel Macron’s domestic reform agenda looks to have met its Waterloo over massive popular opposition to pension reform. In this video interview, Cedric takes stock of Macron’s presidency and explains what it means for France’s economic prospects in the next four years.
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