Events

The relatively closed US economy is arguably the best positioned to weather disruption stemming from the Iran war. Yet even it finds itself at an awkward juncture. As high-income households generally thrive in an environment of technological disruption and high asset prices, those in the middle and lower end are struggling due to financial strain and inflation. Will and Kai Xian explore the balance of these forces, the impacts of the war and concerns around big outflows from the private credit sector and what that means for credit transmission in the economy.

The economic fallout from the war in Iran is broadening as disrupted energy markets drive oil and gas prices higher and leave policymakers with difficult dilemmas if they are to avoid a 1970s stagflationary cycle from unfolding. Our panel considers the latest developments on the ground in the Persian Gulf and assesses what this means for the US, Europe and emerging economies.

Since the US and Israel launched decapitation strikes against Iran’s leadership and oil and gas infrastructure has been targets of attacks, global markets have been rocked by uncertainty over how long Middle East energy supplies will be disrupted. Our panel assess the latest geopolitical situation and aims to map a path on what comes next for markets.