Videos

For more than 30 years, there has been a fairly reliable inverse correlation between US treasury bonds and equities which has been the bedrock of most balanced portfolio strategies. Of late, however, that relationship has gone awry and the two asset classes have tended to move in lockstep—both up and down. In this video interview, Louis tries to explain what is going on and what happens next.

On the face of it, the US housing sector has had a rotten year, with new home prices down some -18% over the period. So why are US homebuilder stocks approaching record highs? Tan Kai Xian seeks to unpick the market's dynamics in this video and answer the question: is this time different?

Argentina’s president-elect Javier Milei wants to scrap the Argentinian peso and adopt the US dollar in an attempt to end the inflation-plagued economy’s perma-crisis once and for all. But there are formidable practical difficulties that are likely to derail Milei’s plans.

Easing consumer inflation in October and a not too hot, not too cold jobs report have helped to extend a rally in US stock and bond markets. In this video interview, chief US economist Will Denyer looks behind the headline numbers to explore what the latest US data releases are really telling investors in US markets.

Hong Kong may not be the freewheeling city of yore, but is trying to effect a reboot that will again make it Asia’s premier international financial center. Tom Holland and Simon Pritchard assess where the offshore Chinese territory stands in its recovery from political protests, Covid isolation and a game-changing national security law which has crushed political dissent.

China’s economic growth momentum stabilized in the third quarter, but it remains fragile and at a weak level. In this video, Christopher Beddor discusses the Dragonomics team's latest quarterly macro chartbook, including the outlook for growth, the current state of the property market and the recent policy shift towards greater fiscal support.

Poland is lurching back to the center ground of European politics with a coalition led by the big beast Donald Tusk, expected to soon form a government. This is good news for architects of a closer European Union and is likely to benefit Poland’s economy.

In the wake of the Hamas attacks on Israel, Brent crude is trading at around US$87/bbl. That’s US$10/bbl lower than in late September. In this video interview, Tom Holland explores the reasons why the price of oil has failed to break through the US$100/bbl barrier and examines whether an escalation of the Gaza conflict could yet drive a painful spike in global prices.

As we enter October, historically a stormy season for financial markets, there are ominous signs that the recent steep sell-off in US treasury bonds is beginning to have an increasingly severe effect on other asset markets. In this video interview, Tan Kai Xian looks at which sectors of the stock market are most at risk and assesses the probability of a sharp rise in broad equity volatility accompanied by an abrupt fall in prices.

In the last two months, US treasury bonds have suffered another steep sell-off, with 10-year yields rising to their highest since 2007. In this video interview, Louis explores why the market is seeing another down-leg now, examines the implications and asks where, with major equity indexes under pressure, investors can seek safety amid the turbulence.

China’s growth momentum has visibly faltered in recent weeks and the government is now changing course, rolling out more stimulus in hopes of rescuing the recovery. But does the government have the tools to reverse the downturn in property and the disappointments in consumer demand?

Didier Darcet leads a team of researchers in Paris who focus on asset allocation questions through the Gavekal-IS service. Starting with the “permanent portfolio” developed by US activist and investment advisor Harry Browne, in this webinar he explains the team’s methodology.

After three years of Covid-induced inertia, Beijing is fashioning a strategy to counter Washington’s containment policy. This matters for investors because it is influencing corporate supply chain decisions and changing the risk calculus in different regions. Tom Miller has specialized in understanding China’s relationships with non-OECD nations and in this webinar explains how China’s strategy is likely to play out.

For decades, Japan has been derided as a value trap for investors. Now, things are changing. Inflation is back, and this time it’s bedding down. Wages are rising. And the Bank of Japan is preparing to back away from its ultra-easy monetary policies. Long-running policy efforts to strengthen corporate governance are beginning to unlock value for investors in the stock market, and with the Japanese yen still deeply undervalued, there are prospects of sizable currency appreciation. Udith Sikand outlines Japan’s unique value proposition for investors.

Europe analysts Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews assess the eurozone’s economic outlook and ask what the main drivers of European asset market performance over the second half of 2023 will be.

Anatole Kaletsky insists that the US remains in an inflationary boom and will avoid a near-term recession. Will Denyer is on the other side of Gavekal’s internal debate, contending that a disinflationary US recession is around the corner. In this webinar, Will asked the questions in order to test out Anatole’s convictions.

Until recently the US government’s approach to China was to pile up sanctions and export restrictions, without any hint of when and where the moves might stop. That has shifted in recent months, with US officials suggesting the country now wants to push the pause button. Arthur and Yanmei take the temperature of the relationship and discuss where it goes next.

Turkey and Thailand go to the polls on May 14. Both countries have seen their share of authoritarian policymaking and populist democratic politics. In yesterday’s webinar, Udith Sikand and Vincent Tsui assessed each economy’s prospects and sought to draw some common lessons.

Will and KX have been in the camp arguing that such trends point to a US economy heading towards recession. They update their view with a particular focus on the strength of the US consumer and in light of this week's Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

China’s economic rebound is well under way, with GDP growth in the first quarter beating expectations on the back of strengthening household consumption and property sales. But many still have doubts about the strength of the recovery. Thomas Gatley and Wei He assess what the data tell us about the recovery so far, as well as the outlook for economic growth and asset markets.